REAL CONVERGENCE AND PRICE LEVELS: LONG‐TERM TENDENCIES VERSUS SHORT‐TERM PERFORMANCE IN THE ENLARGED EUROPEAN UNION

A cross‐country regression relating the relative price level to the relative GDP level is statistically significant and stable over time. Price and GDP levels for EU member countries tend to gravitate to that line. The conclusion that there is a shorter‐term trade‐off between fast real convergence and low inflation is unwarranted. Higher inflation is not a necessary companion of fast convergence. Giving up national currency, or pegging it to the euro, may prevent real convergence or precipitate divergence. A weak initial price level may be insufficient. While retaining national currency is not risk‐free, it allows a corrective devaluation.     

A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach

While using the binary quantile regression (BQR) model, we establish a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings for both the accounting-ratio-based and market-based information. Using the proposed model, we conduct an empirical study on a dataset comprising of default events during the period from 1996 to 2006. In this study, those firms experienced bankruptcy/liquidation events as defined by the Compustat database are classified as “defaulted” firms, whereas all other firms listed in the Fortune 500 with over a B-rating during the same time period are identified as “survived” firms. The empirical findings of this study are consistent with the following notions. The distance-to-default (DD) variable derived from the market-based model is statistically significant in explaining the observed default events, particularly of those firms with relatively poor credit quality (i.e., high credit risk). Conversely, the z-score obtained with the accounting-ratio-based approach is statistically significant in predicting bankruptcies of firms of relatively good credit quality (i.e., low credit risk). In-sample and out-of-sample bankruptcy prediction tests demonstrated the superior performance of utilizing dynamic loadings rather than constant loadings derived by the conventional logit model.     

Measuring the benefits of local publilc goods: environmental quality in Gaston County,North Carolina

Local governments across the United states have been confronted with a growing range of federal and state-mandated environmental protection programmes. It is found that an application of contingent valuation to a local environmental policy is internally valid by theoretically and empirically examining the economic determinants of responses to a hypothetical referendum. The resulting option price estimate is statistically reliable and has a reasonable order of magnitude. Results indicate that respondents are willing to pay for improvements in water quality,but not air qualilty. It is found that informatiion from various external sources helps to explain risk perceptions, and these perceptions, in turn influence willingness to pay. The aggregate benefits of an air and water polllution control programme to Gaston County are estimated to be $13.07 million annually with a 90% confidence interval of $11.07 million and $16.12 million.     

A Critical Analysis of Peltzman’s “The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation”

Karl Polanyi considered that the relationship between the markets and their societies was a central feature of any social order. He studied what he called "ancient societies," to compare them with his own times, in an effort to understand that subject. This paper aims to show, following Polanyi's work on Classical Greece, that it is possible to make a clear analogy between the Athenian state and economy with the modern Welfare State. First, we present Polanyi's study of the early Athenian economy, focusing on the coexistence of a kind of state economic planning and a market. Second, we show how this relates to Polanyi's emphasis in the comparison of different societies and times. Third, we characterize the contemporary Welfare State to make an analogy between these two forms of economic organization. We conclude by underlining the relevance of this analogy in understanding the societies of today.     

Motivating energy suppliers to promote energy conservation

We examine the design of regulatory policy to induce electric utilities to deliver the surplus-maximizing level of energy efficiency services, $e^{*}$ . The rebound effect (whereby increased energy efficiency stimulates the demand for energy) typically renders revenue decoupling insufficient in this regard. The additional financial incentive required to induce $e^{*}$ is shown to vary with such factors as the prevailing price of energy, the magnitude of the rebound effect, the extent of observable energy efficiency investments, and the utility’s objective.     

Peruco: A Method for Producing Safe and Consistent Microdata

A new method for protecting microdata is introduced. This method, per turbation of u nsafe co mbinations (Peruco), eliminates unsafe combinations in the records in which they occur, by replacing them with safe combinations that are also consistent with the other values in the remainder of the records. Consistency is relative to a set of micro-edits that is supposed to be given along with the microdata. A deterministic optimization model is discussed, as well as possible extensions.     

Conjugate small country production equilibrium concepts

Conjugacy theory is utilized and developed to develop an interpretation of the production equilibrium in general equilibrium in terms of the properties of sectoral value added functions and in terms of the relative influence of each sector on all other sectors in a small country's economy. The exact relationship between the comparative static system thus analyzed and the one traditionally built on equilibrium in terms of the vector of factor prices and gross output levels is delineated. The major contributions to the theory of effective protection are also illuminated.     

Trends in energy expenditures by black households

Summary This paper presents an analysis of the projected trends in direct energy expenditures among black and white households classified by location, age, and sex of the household head, and income. Estimates of changes in the distribution of energy expenditures among groups of Black and white households are compared for 1974 and 1985. On the average, black households have lower income, larger families, drive older cars, and live in older and less energy-efficient homes. The analysis pursued here is intended to show how these determinants of energy consumption are reflected in black/white comparisons of energy expenditures. The 1985 projections are based on the mid-term 1985 energy Projection Series A through F prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for its 1977 Annual Report to Congress. The EIA energy Projection Series were based on differing assumptions with regard to: (1) growth rates of economic activity; (2) the probable levels of recoverable U.S. oil and gas resources; and (3) oil import prices. Then present energy policy was assumed to continue. This analysis utilizes a microsimulation approach to project household energy expenditures and other household energyrelated variables.